A Simple Paper Exercise for the Future

As we close out 2020, here’s a simple tool for reflecting on what’s to come

an xiao mina
3 min readDec 30, 2020
A blank sheet of paper folded in half
Image CC-BY chip.hedler

It’s now been one year since Dr. Li Wenliang warned the world of the respiratory disease that would change the world, eventually taking his life in the process. As we think about a decade hence, it’s worth considering the potential ripple effects of what we’re seeing now.

During times of crisis, it helps to look at three factors: the past and how it’s shaping us, the present conditions and reality, and what’s likely to come. This is particularly tricky with COVID-19. One thing worth noting, for instance, is the pandemic’s second order effects. In other words, there’s what the pandemic is causing — death, illness, anxiety — but also what it’s causing that’s causing other things. Take, for instance, the boom in the dog market, alongside a drop in calls to domestic violence hotlines. These second order effects are harder to assess in advance, but they’re often more consequential, as they affect more people both during a pandemic and after.

There’s an exercise I like to do in group facilitations. It involves a simple sheet of paper. Why paper? It’s important to write things down during times of tremendous change, because it keeps us grounded in our purpose and vision. It’s okay, of course, to change that…

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